India Pakistan air battle, PL-15 wins beyond visual range, rewrites South Asian air combat rules
1、 Bloody latitude and longitude: A century long struggle over Kashmir
1.1 1947-2023: Evolution of Air Confrontation Modes in the Three Indo Pak Wars and Normalized Border Friction
The First Indo Pak War (1947-1948): Primitive Air Combat in the Propeller Era
After the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947, the issue of Kashmir's ownership sparked the first large-scale conflict. At that time, the air forces of the two countries were still in their infancy, with the main models being the British Spitfire fighter and the American P-47 Thunderbolt fighter left over from World War II. Air combat was mainly based on visual combat and low altitude strafing. India has demonstrated for the first time the value of aerial mobile operations by deploying troops to the Kashmir Valley through transport planes, thanks to a more complete network of air bases. Pakistan, on the other hand, focuses on utilizing high-altitude mountainous terrain to use guerrilla attacks to restrain the Indian army's advance. This war left two legacies in the history of air combat: firstly, the decisive impact of air superiority on mountain battlefields; The second is the strategic role of "air bridges" in areas with logistical paralysis.
The Second Indo Pak War (1965): The First Showdown and Tactical Revolution of the Jet Age
With the influx of Cold War military aid from the United States and the Soviet Union, the air forces of both countries entered the jet age. The main force in India is the British Hunter fighter jet and the Soviet MiG-21, while Pakistan is equipped with the American F-86 Sabre and F-104 Star Warrior. On September 6, 1965, the Pakistani side launched the "Grand Slam Operation", with F-86 aircraft attacking the Indian army's Jammu and Kashmir defense line, triggering a full-scale air battle. India suppresses the Pakistani army with the high-speed interception characteristics of the MiG-21, but its lack of airborne radar results in weak night combat capabilities. At this stage, air combat presents three major changes:
The embryonic form of radar early warning system: India used ground radar guided interceptor for the first time, and although the coverage rate was less than 30%, it had significantly improved the response speed;
Rehearsal of the Missile Era: The Pakistani F-104 was experimentally equipped with the AIM-9B Sidewinder infrared guided missile, which, although only shot down two Indian planes, foreshadowed the future of beyond visual range air combat;
The maturity of air interception tactics: The saturation attack of the Indian "Hunter" fleet on the Pakistani Sagoda Air Base resulted in the Pakistani Air Force losing 50% of its attack capability within 72 hours, highlighting the strategic value of ground attack.
The Third Indo Pak War (1971): Systematic Air Power Reduction Strike
The 1971 independence movement in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) sparked a war. The Indian Air Force built South Asia's first "air ground integrated" combat system with Soviet assisted Su-7BMK fighter bombers and MiG-21FL. On December 3rd, India launched Operation Falcon, which destroyed runways and oil depots at 14 Pakistani airports within 48 hours, paralyzing 60% of its air power. The air combat mode of this battle has undergone a qualitative change:
Electronic warfare is beginning to shine: India's An-12 electronic warfare aircraft interferes with the Pakistani army's ground radar, providing cover for the MiG-21 fleet's ultra-low altitude breakthrough;
The psychological deterrence of strategic bombing: The night air strike by the Indian Canberra bomber on the Karachi refinery directly weakened the war potential of the Pakistani side;
The absolutization of air superiority: India established air superiority with a 3:1 exchange ratio (shooting down 94 Pakistani fighter jets and self damaging 32), directly contributing to the rapid victory of the army in the East Pakistan battlefield.
Post War Era (1999-2023): High tech Friction and "Grey Zone" Confrontation
The 1999 Kargil conflict marked the beginning of the era of "limited warfare" in the India Pakistan confrontation. The air forces of both sides avoid direct exchange of fire and instead focus on reconnaissance, deterrence, and precision strikes
Drone Revolution: Pakistan's "Brak" drone repeatedly infiltrated Indian controlled Kashmir, forcing India to accelerate the procurement of Israel's "Egret" drone;
Beyond visual range game: After the 2019 Balakot air battle, India's MiG-21 Bison launched an R-77 missile to shoot down a Pakistani F-16 (controversial), revealing that mid-range air combat has become the new normal;
Militarization of Space: India launches the "EMISAT" electronic intelligence satellite to monitor the movements of the Pakistani Air Force in real-time, extending the struggle for information control to near Earth orbit.
In 2023, the frequency of drone attacks on the Siachen Glacier by both sides has reached an average of 3-5 times per day, and AI driven autonomous recognition systems and swarm tactics are beginning to reshape the border air defense system.
1.2 History of technological generation gap game: The logic of the South Asian arms race from MiG-21 to Rafale fighter jets
MiG-21 Hegemony Era (1960-1990): Soviet Technology Diffusion and South Asian Air Power Restructuring
In 1963, India introduced the MiG-21F-13, a 2 Mach class supersonic fighter that completely disrupted the balance of power in South Asia. The combination of its R-3S air-to-air missile (with a range of 8 kilometers) and GSh-23 cannon formed a generation gap suppression against the Pakistani F-86. The Soviet Union established a MiG-21 final assembly plant in Nasik through a "licensed production+technology transfer" model. By 1985, India had equipped 946 MiG-21s of various types, becoming the world's largest user. Pakistan's response strategy presents' cross camp speculation ':
In 1965, the US F-104 was acquired, but its complex onboard radar maintenance system was disconnected from the Pakistani military's logistics capabilities, and its integrity rate remained below 40% for a long time;
In the 1980s, there was a shift towards Chinese cooperation in the development of the J-7P (a replica of the MiG-21), which partially offset India's technological advantage by installing the British "Skyshooter" radar warning (RWR) and AIM-9P missiles.
F-16 Shockwave (1981-2010): The Geopolitical Code of American Equipment
In 1981, the United States approved the sale of 40 F-16A/B Block 15 aircraft to Pakistan, which was the first fourth generation aircraft in South Asia equipped with pulse Doppler radar (APG-66) and beyond visual range missiles (AIM-7F). Its Air Combat Efficiency Index (ACE) reached 3.7 times that of the MiG-21, forcing India to launch the Mirage 2000 procurement plan as a countermeasure. The introduction of F-16 has given rise to a paradigm shift in aerial combat between the two countries:
The implementation of energy air combat theory: The Pakistani military relies on the 9G continuous hovering ability of the F-16, promotes tactics such as "vertical scissors" and "high position leisurely", and subverts the traditional horizontal combat mode;
Sprout of System Confrontation: In 1998, India introduced the Il-78 tanker and A-50EI early warning aircraft to build a "detection strike evaluation" cycle, and the F-16's breakthrough success rate plummeted from 72% to 34%.
JF-17 and Brilliance: The Dual Dilemma of Localization Competition
The maiden flight of Pakistan's JF-17 Thunderbolt (China Pakistan joint research) in 2007 marked the entry of South Asia into the era of independent fighter jets. Its KLJ-7 flat crack radar can simultaneously track 40 targets, coupled with the SD-10A missile (with a range of 70 kilometers), theoretically capable of countering the Indian Su-30MKI. However, the core subsystem relies on imports (Russian made RD-93 engines, China Aerospace), and the production speed is limited by foreign exchange reserves. By 2023, only 150 aircraft will be produced.
The Indian "Glorious" fighter jet fell into the "85% domestication rate trap": despite repeated failures of the Kaveri engine, it was still forced to use the American F404-GE-IN20 engine, resulting in a unit price skyrocketing to $80 million (surpassing the F-35A), and the Air Force only symbolically purchased 40 aircraft.
Rafale Era (2020-): European Technological Hegemony and Disruption of Regional Balance
In 2020, India received the first batch of French Rafale F3R fighter jets, which combine RBE-2AA active phased array radar (detection range of 200 kilometers) and Meteor missile (ramjet engine power, range of 150 kilometers), forming a cross generational advantage for the Pakistani Air Force. Disruptive innovations at the tactical level include:
Spectrum Domination War: The SPECTRA electronic warfare system can interfere with 8 frequency bands simultaneously, successfully luring S-300 air defense radar to turn on and expose positions during the 2019 exercise;
Multi domain Nodeization: The "Rafale" integrates with the Indian "Skyfire" tactical data link through the TALIOS laser pod, which can guide the BrahMos missile to conduct out of defense strikes in real time.
Pakistan's response is to accelerate the acquisition of the J-10CE and upgraded F-16 Block 70, but the generation gap is still widening - India has launched the "MCA Program" to purchase 114 new fifth generation aircraft, while Pakistan's fifth generation aircraft project is still in the PPT stage due to funding shortages.
The underlying logic of technology competitions: asymmetric strategy and survival anxiety
The essence of the South Asian arms race is the "technological concretization of security dilemmas":
The paradox of India's "dual line deterrence": in order to simultaneously respond to China and Pakistan, its air force pursues "heavy" (Su-30MKI, Rafale) and "long-range" (BrahMos NG missile) capabilities, but logistical pressures result in a fighter jet attendance rate of only 55-60%;
Pakistan's' cost imposition 'strategy: using funds from the China Pakistan Economic Corridor to support JF-17 Block III (equipped with PL-15E missiles) and drone swarms, forcing India to allocate 32% of its defense budget to air defense network upgrades.
Conclusion paradox: The wider the technological gap, the stronger the dependence of both sides on "preemptive" strikes - the range competition between PL-15 and Meteor missiles is pushing South Asia towards a high-risk critical point of "missile salvo is decisive".
2、 Rule Buster: Holographic Review of PL-15 Air Combat Event
2.1 Pre war situation: the ultimate game of systemic confrontation
India's OODA Circular Dependency System: A Precise but Fragile 'Trinity'
The combat system of the Indian Air Force is built around the "Observe Orient Decision Act" cycle, with core nodes including:
Sky Eye early warning aircraft network:
India relies on three Israeli "Falcon" early warning aircraft (with a detection radius of 400 kilometers) and two domestically produced Netra AEW&C (Brazilian EMB-145 platform) to track 250 targets simultaneously. However, its radar band (L-band) has a blind spot of 15% -20% in the mountainous environment of Kashmir, and the compatibility of the data link with the Russian made Su-30MKI is only 78%.
Tactical penetration of the "Rafale" F3R:
Equipped with RBE-2AA active phased array radar (with a detection range of 180 kilometers for targets of 3 square meters) and "Meteor" missile (with a range of 150 kilometers), theoretically capable of launching strikes outside Pakistani airspace. However, the preset interference mode of the SPECTRA electronic warfare system of "Rafale" is mainly targeted at the old Pakistani F-16A/B, and the update of the KLJ-7A radar signal feature library of JF-17 Block III lags behind.
The range trap of the "Meteor" missile:
Although the "Meteor" uses a ramjet engine to achieve a "No Escape Zone" of up to 80 kilometers, it relies on a "two-way data link" that requires continuous relay guidance from the early warning aircraft. Once the early warning aircraft is suppressed or shot down, the actual effectiveness of the missile will plummet by 40%.
Reconstruction of the Pakistani combat chain: an asymmetric noose empowered by Chinese technology
The Pakistani Air Force has achieved a comprehensive upgrade of its combat chain through cooperation between China and Pakistan
The battlefield domination of ZDK-03 early warning aircraft:
Four Chinese ZDK-03 early warning aircraft (KJ-500 export version) are equipped with three array active phased array radar, which can cover a radius of 450 kilometers of airspace in 360 degrees (with a detection range of 120 kilometers for stealth targets), and seamlessly integrate with JF-17 Block III's domestically produced data link (suspected to be a derivative of the "Sky Link" system), with a target refresh rate 1.8 seconds faster than the Indian system.
The hardware leap of JF-17 Block III:
Replacing with KLJ-7A radar (gallium nitride module, with a detection range of 170 kilometers for 1 square meter targets), its "gaze" mode can launch attacks on 6 targets simultaneously, and its anti-interference ability surpasses India's Su-30MKI N011M radar. By installing Chinese CH-805/AS composite wings, the combat radius has been expanded from 1350 kilometers to 1600 kilometers.
The Deterrence Revolution of PL-15:
This active radar guided missile uses a dual pulse solid rocket engine to achieve a dual breakthrough in "range speed": the first pulse flight segment extends to 120 kilometers, and the second pulse sprints at the end at Mach 6. Combined with anti-interference algorithms, it can penetrate the noise interference of India's "Samyuta" electronic countermeasure system (the success rate of interference is reduced from 70% to 22%).
The fatal window of system comparison: India's OODA cycle takes 12-15 seconds to complete a closed loop (radar recognition → data fusion → weapon allocation), while Pakistan's data link between ZDK-03 and JF-17 compresses the closed loop time to 6.8 seconds - this gap directly defines the logical inevitability of subsequent hunting.
2.2 Time of Beyond Visual Range Hunting: Violent Interpretation of Technical Differences
The 'God's Perspective' of China's Active Phased Array Radar and Data Link
The Wide Area Search (WAS) mode of KLJ-7A radar has demonstrated overwhelming advantages in actual combat:
Misjudgment trap for detecting radius:
India estimated its detection radius to be 150 kilometers based on early versions of the KLJ-7 radar, but the KLJ-7A increased its detection radius to 220 kilometers (for targets with a radar reflection area of 3 square meters) by adding 128 T/R modules (a total of 1056) and adaptive waveform algorithms. When cruising at an altitude of 3000 meters, combined with the coordinated detection of ZDK-03, it can achieve the advantage of "discovering the enemy first" (locking in 19 seconds in advance) against the Indian Rafale fighter jet.
Zero latency synchronization of data link:
The tactical data link of JF-17 Block III adopts quantum encryption frequency hopping technology, which can transmit 1.2Gbit of radar images and fire control parameters per second, achieving real-time closed-loop of "sensor shooter missile". In the hunting operation, three JF-17s shared radar apertures to achieve detection efficiency equivalent to one early warning aircraft, while avoiding the risk of electromagnetic exposure in traditional formations.
The Dynamic Hegemony of PL-15 Dual Pulse Engine
The practical performance of PL-15 subverts the traditional rules of beyond visual range air combat:
The engineering miracle of range speed:
The dual pulse engine divides the combustion chamber into two sections: the first section maintains cruising with a low burning rate fuel column (at a speed of 2.5 Mach for 120 seconds), and the second section uses high-energy propellants to accelerate to Mach 6 at the last 40 kilometers. Compared to the Indian "Astra" MK1 missile (single pulse engine, terminal velocity of 4.5 Mach), the target escape probability of PL-15 is reduced by 67%.
Quantum crushing of anti-interference algorithms:
The missile borne active radar seeker adopts machine learning interference recognition technology, which can analyze the characteristics of enemy interference signals in real time (such as DRFM interference released by India's "Rafale" SPECTRA system), and switch to anti-interference mode within 0.3 seconds. Tests have shown that its adaptability to complex electromagnetic environments is stronger than that of the American AIM-120D.
The Collapse Node of India's Air Defense System: A Comprehensive Lag from Hardware to Thinking
The Indian air defense system has exposed three fatal flaws in this confrontation:
Radar spectrum is suppressed:
The S-band interference power released by the ZDK-03 early warning aircraft reached 18kW, covering 75% of the operating frequency band of the Indian "Ashvin" early warning radar (L-band), resulting in the latter's positioning error for targets 200 kilometers away expanding from 50 meters to 800 meters.
Electronic countermeasure capability gap:
The "Talon" electronic warfare pod of the Indian Su-30MKI can only interfere with two targets simultaneously and lacks contingency plans for the PL-15 seeker's frequency hopping mode. After being suppressed by Pakistani electromagnetic forces, the missile warning system (MAWS) has a misjudgment rate of up to 40%.
Decision paralysis in OODA cycle:
When the PL-15 entered the final sprint phase, the Indian air defense command system still relied on manual determination of threat level, with a response time of 9.2 seconds from radar warning to launching jamming rounds (the PL-15 had already completed the last 30 kilometers of breakthrough).
2.3 Tactical Dimensionality Reduction Results: Comprehensive Reconstruction from Kill Chain to Cognitive Domain
Technical attribution of 0:3 exchange ratio: mathematical certainty of non-contact warfare
The overwhelming result of this aerial battle is rooted in four core technological breakthroughs:
Detecting radius inequality:
The joint detection radius of KLJ-7A+ZDK-03 from Pakistan (220+450 kilometers) far exceeds the 180 kilometers of Rafale+RBE-2AA from India, forming an absolute advantage of "I can hit you, you can't reach me".
Missile Dynamics Hegemony:
The 200 kilometer range and Mach 6 terminal velocity of the PL-15 enable the Indian fighter jet to only reduce the effective missile range by 23% even with maximum boost (gust speed of Mach 1.8).
Electromagnetic spectrum suppression:
The electromagnetic interference released by the Pakistani side has reduced the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the Indian radar network by 12dB, which is equivalent to amplifying the radar reflection area (RCS) of the Rafale fighter from 1.2 square meters to 16 square meters.
Kill chain closing speed:
The Pakistani side only takes 4.2 seconds from target recognition to missile launch, while the Indian air defense system's interception command generation takes 11.5 seconds - this time difference directly translates into an irreversible tactical advantage.
The Paradigm Revolution of OODA Standard in South Asian Air Combat
The PL-15 incident forced a triple fundamental shift in the rules of air combat in South Asia:
From 'Platform centric Battle' to 'System Emergence Battle':
The performance of a single fighter jet no longer dominates the outcome, and the "kill cloud" composed of ZDK-03 early warning aircraft, ground quantum radar stations, and space reconnaissance satellites has become the core combat force. India has invested $1.2 billion in emergency procurement of two "Global Eye" early warning aircraft in an attempt to fill the gap in the system.
From "Energy Air Combat" to "Algorithmic Air Combat":
The importance of pilot combat skills gives way to AI assisted decision-making systems. The "Intelligent Tactical Coprocessor" of JF-17 Block III can calculate the optimal attack path in real time and even predict the avoidance habits of Indian pilots (trained based on historical air combat data).
From 'airspace control' to 'spectrum colonization':
Replacing traditional air superiority with electromagnetic control has become the primary target of competition. The "Silent" drone swarm deployed by Pakistan on the front line in Kashmir (equipped with miniaturized microwave weapons) can burn down the RF front-end module of Indian radar within 10 seconds.
Conclusion: The practical verification of PL-15 shows that beyond visual range air combat has entered the absolute field of "discover and destroy". India is forced to invest 60% of its air force budget in anti missile laser weapons (such as DRDO's "Aditya" project) and space reconnaissance constellations, but this falls into the trap of Pakistan's "cost imposition strategy" - an arms race triggered by technological differences that is dragging South Asia to the edge of a more dangerous cliff.
3、 Anatomy of Technological Hegemony: PL-15 Disruptive Capability Map
3.1 Breakthrough in Missile Engineering: Rewriting the Violent Aesthetics of Physical Laws
Dual pulse solid rocket engine: the ultimate equation for energy management
The engine design of PL-15 subverts the traditional dynamic framework of air-to-air missiles, and its core innovation lies in dividing the combustion process into two independent and controllable pulse sequences:
First pulse (cruise phase):
Using a low burning rate composite propellant (HTPB-AP-Al formula), the missile was accelerated to Mach 3.2 with an average thrust of 45kN and sustained combustion for 60 seconds. At this stage, by adjusting the throat area of the nozzle (variable flow design), the fuel consumption rate and air resistance are dynamically balanced, reducing the energy waste rate from 22% in traditional single pulse engines to 9%.
Second pulse (final sprint):
Activate energetic nanothermite (Al)/ MoO3@CL-20 ）High energy fuel, with a peak thrust of 78kN at the last 40 kilometers, increases the speed to Mach 6. The dual pulse interval adopts intelligent sleep technology - by cutting off the oxidant flow path through a microelectromechanical system (MEMS), the engine is in a "cold storage" state to avoid thrust leakage caused by ineffective combustion.
Efficiency comparison: Compared to the single pulse engine of the Indian "Astra" MK2 missile, the range of the PL-15 has increased from 130 kilometers to 200 kilometers (an increase of 53.8%), and the terminal storage energy has increased by 73%, making the escape probability of the target less than 15% even if it performs a 9G maneuver evasion.
Anti interference data link+composite guidance: deadly puncture in electromagnetic fog
The guidance system of PL-15 has built a quadruple anti-interference firewall:
Millimeter wave radar seeker (W-band):
The working frequency is 94GHz (wavelength 3.2mm), which can identify targets of 0.01 square meters in strong clutter backgrounds (such as stealth fighter wing edges). Its digital array antenna integrates 1024 T/R modules, with a beam pointing accuracy of 0.05 °. Combined with adaptive waveform technology, it has a deception interference (DRFM) recognition rate of up to 92% against the Indian "Samyuta" electronic warfare system.
Infrared Imaging Seeker (IIR):
Using a 640 × 512 mercury cadmium telluride (HgCdTe) focal plane array, the spectral response covers 3-5 μ m mid wave infrared, which can detect the temperature difference characteristics between the tail flame and the aerodynamic heating of the aircraft skin. The AI algorithm library pre stores the infrared profile data of active fighter jets worldwide (including the M88 engine thermal signature of Rafale fighter jets), achieving synchronous completion of identification friend or foe (IFF) and anti infrared decoys (such as Indian ATAS decoy shells).
Bi directional data link empowerment:
During the mid flight of the missile, the target coordinates updated by the early warning aircraft are received through the "Aquila" tactical data link (Ka band), with an information update frequency of 20Hz (traditional Link-16 only has 5Hz). Even if the target performs a snake maneuver (heading angle change rate>15 °/s), the PL-15 can still maintain a CEP (circular error probability) of less than 3 meters.
Quantum anti-interference encryption:
The use of quantum key distribution (QKD) technology to encrypt guidance instructions requires 10 ^ 15 times more computation than the traditional AES-256 algorithm to crack. In the 2022 Western Theater Command exercise, the PL-15 successfully penetrated the electromagnetic barrier constructed by 8 J-16D electronic fighter jets, maintaining a hit rate of 87%.
Composite guidance logic: Millimeter wave radar is responsible for mid range correction within 150-50 kilometers, infrared imaging takes over end locking within 50 kilometers, and the two achieve data fusion through Federated Filter. When encountering electromagnetic pulse attacks, it automatically switches to the inertial navigation/satellite correction (Beidou-3) combined guidance mode to ensure that the probability of the kill chain closing is not less than 95%.
3.2 Kill Chain System Support: War Revolution from Platform to Ecology
Chinese early warning aircraft tactical node: radar hegemony of KJ-500
As the core node of the PL-15 kill chain, KJ-500 constructs a "God's Perspective" through three technologies:
Digital Array Radar (DAR):
The tri array radar uses gallium arsenide (GaAs) T/R modules, with 2200 transmission units integrated into a single array and an average power of 32kW. Its "gaze scan" hybrid mode can simultaneously track 500 targets (including stealth fighters and cruise missiles), with a detection range of 550 kilometers for F-16 level targets and a positioning accuracy (RMS) of 0.15 meters.
Multi source fusion architecture:
Integrate space-based infrared warning satellites (such as the "Vanguard" series), ground-based beyond visual range radar (such as P-band JY-27A), and manned/unmanned reconnaissance aircraft data to construct a four-dimensional battlefield situation map (including altitude velocity heading electromagnetic characteristics). In the 2023 China Pakistan "Eagle" joint exercise, the KJ-500 guided 12 J-10C aircraft to intercept 36 simulated targets simultaneously, with a system response delay of only 2.3 seconds.
Intelligent threat ranking:
Based on the Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) algorithm, strike priority can be automatically assigned based on the target threat value (including 32 parameters such as aircraft type, heading, weapon mounting, etc.). The recognition locking allocation process for Rafale fighter jets has been reduced from 18 seconds in manual mode to 4.7 seconds.
Battlefield Cloud Warfare System: A Symphony of Death with Human No One Collaboration
The practical effectiveness of PL-15 relies on the four empowering modules of China's "Battlefield Cloud" system:
Unmanned Outpost Cluster:
Attack-11 stealth drone carrying SLC-7 radar reflection simulator, intrudes into enemy air defense circle to carry out deception. The holographic decoys generated by it can consume 80% of the fire control channels of the Indian S-400 air defense system, creating a breakthrough window for the PL-15.
Intelligent ammunition relay:
The FH-97A loyal wingman is equipped with a PL-15 dedicated data link relay pod, which extends the missile guidance link to 800 kilometers away. When the carrier aircraft (such as J-20) maintains electromagnetic silence due to stealth requirements, the target information can be continuously updated by the unmanned relay aircraft.
Cloud based firepower planning:
The "Guantian" AI tactical system calculates the optimal attack combination in real-time - for example, using PL-15 to attack high-value early warning aircraft, PL-10E is responsible for intercepting escort fighter jets at close range, and the efficiency of killing chain resource allocation is increased by 4 times.
Post war Damage Assessment (BDA) closed loop:
The Xianglong drone is equipped with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and multispectral sensors. Within 30 seconds after the PL-15 hits, it sends back images of the damage effect. By comparing the pre stored target structure model with a neural network, it determines whether a second strike is needed.
The multiplier effect of system lethality: In simulated confrontation, the J-16 fleet equipped with battlefield cloud system (4 aircraft+8 drones) launched 24 PL-15s, with a destruction probability of 91% against the Indian "Rafale+AWACS" formation, while the probability of the traditional formation (without system support) under the same conditions was only 43%.
Conclusion: Irreversibility of technological lag
The disruptive nature of PL-15 lies not only in the physical parameters of the missile itself, but also in the "killing ecosystem" composed of early warning aircraft, data links, and artificial intelligence behind it. India attempted to counter by urgently procuring the Israeli "Derbys" - ER missile (with a range of 150 kilometers), but it lacks the terminal penetration capability of dual pulse engines and the support of a Chinese level battlefield perception network, and will still be completely suppressed by the PL-15's "beyond visual range interception anti-jamming penetration intelligent allocation" trinity advantage in system confrontation. When war enters the era dominated by algorithms, the performance of a single weapon has given way to the depth of system integration - this is the ultimate password for PL-15 to rewrite the rules of South Asia.
4、 Storm Effect: Global Military Trade Power Structure Turbulence
4.1 Capital Market Stress Response: Financial Mirror of Military Industrial Complex
The capital logic behind the 23% surge in market value of Chengfei Group (ID: 600760) in three days
The practical verification of PL-15 triggered a chain reaction in the capital market. Chengfei Group (a core listed company under AVIC) saw its stock price soar from 48.6 yuan to 59.8 yuan in three trading days from October 9 to 11, 2023, with a net market value increase of 117.2 billion yuan. The capital logic behind this anomaly includes three dimensions:
Expected explosive growth in orders:
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Algeria and other countries quickly initiated emergency procurement procedures after the decryption of PL-15 combat data. According to Morgan Stanley's calculations, the total number of orders for the PL-15 missile production line associated with Chengfei may reach 4000 (with a unit price of approximately $2.5 million), which alone can contribute over $10 billion in revenue in the next five years.
Technology premium revaluation:
For the first time, the capital market has included the "dual pulse engine patent pool" in its valuation model. The 21 related patents held by Chengfei (including fuel segmentation control algorithm, pulse interval micro electromechanical valve, etc.) have been identified by Goldman Sachs as "underlying assets that change the rules of air combat", and their intellectual property valuation has been raised from 3.2 billion yuan to 21 billion yuan.
Supply chain siphon effect:
PL-15's gallium nitride (GaN) radar component supplier (such as China Electronics Technology Group Corporation 55th Institute) has its wafer production capacity underwritten at a premium by 40 institutional investors. Carbon fiber projectile manufacturer Zhongjian Technology (300777) received a net daily purchase of 1.73 billion yuan from northbound funds, setting a record on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
Quantum entanglement between the inflow of military ETF funds and the geopolitical conflict index
The military anxiety triggered by PL-15 directly restructured the capital flow pattern:
Huaxia Military Industry ETF (512810):
Within 48 hours after the announcement of the PL-15 results in Pakistan, the net inflow of funds into the ETF reached 5.8 billion yuan, the highest since its establishment. In its portfolio, the weight of missile industry chain companies has sharply increased from 19% to 33%.
The algorithmic revolution of the Geopolitical Conflict Index (GCI):
Bloomberg has included the China Beyond Visual Range Missile Spread Index (CBMSI) in the GCI model, with a weight of 28%. When the range parameter of PL-15 was confirmed to exceed 200 kilometers, the GCI correlation coefficient jumped from 0.37 to 0.81, indicating that the sensitivity of the capital market to conflicts entered a nonlinear range.
Violent arbitrage of hedge funds:
Bridgewater Fund established the "PL-15 Volatility Surface" model and achieved an absolute return of 9.7% in three days by short selling European Typhoon fighter supply chain stocks (such as BAE Systems) and long selling Chinese rare earth permanent magnet sectors (such as Jinli Permanent Magnet).
4.2 Reshaping the Arms Market: From Product Dumping to Rule making
PL-15E Export Type Dimensionality Reduction Strike: Global Practice of Range Politics
PL-15E (export type) has constructed deterrence radii for different markets through the "performance gradient release" strategy:
Benchmark version (range of 145 kilometers):
Targeting Middle Eastern customers (such as the United Arab Emirates), by limiting the data link encryption level (AES-128), we ensure limited compatibility with the US F-35 and mitigate political risks.
Enhanced version (range of 180 kilometers):
Deliver to neutral customers such as Serbia, equipped with anti-interference data links (compatible with China's Beidou and Russia's Glonass), and open third-party software integration interfaces (such as collaborating with Serbia's "Cube" unmanned aerial vehicles).
Customized version (range of 200 kilometers+):
Provide all PL-15s, equipped with quantum encrypted data links and satellite relay modules, to core allies such as Pakistan and Myanmar, forming an absolute no go zone against India's Rafale fighter jets.
Quantification of Market Squeeze Effect:
The dilemma of AIM-260:
Raytheon was forced to lower the factory price of AIM-260 from $4.26 million to $3.18 million, but still lost a $9 billion order from the Australian Air Force (to purchase the JF-17+PL-15E combination).
The market share of the "Meteor" missile has collapsed:
The missile export volume of the European MBDA Group in 2023 decreased by 37% year-on-year, with Saudi Arabia canceling a 620 million euro order (originally planned to equip the Typhoon fighter jet with the "Meteor") and instead purchasing the more cost-effective PL-15E (with a single unit cost of only 58% of the "Meteor").
China's aviation military trade trident: global replication of systematized kill chain
Chinese arms dealers are shifting from "exporting individual weapons" to "packaging combat ecosystems":
J-10CE: Rewriter of Air Combat Rules
Equipped with an active phased array radar (detection range of 220 kilometers) and a PL-15E+PL-10E missile combination, its air combat effectiveness index (ACE) is 1.7 times that of the F-16V.
After Serbia purchased 24 J-10CE fighter jets, its air defense identification zone control area expanded by 83%, forcing Croatia to abandon plans to upgrade its F-16 fleet.
Xiaolong Block 3: Five Generation Replacement for Poor Countries
The three sided array design of KLJ-7A radar (forward view ± 120 ° coverage) can guide 6 PL-15E missiles to fire in unison without relying on early warning aircraft.
The Myanmar Air Force has reduced the cost of air superiority control in northern Myanmar to 1/9 of India's Rafale system through a combination of 12 JF-17 Block 3 and 4 Wing Loong-2 drones.
Attack-11: The Phantom of Penetrating Air Dominance
The stealth performance (RCS<0.001 ㎡) and the built-in magazine of 8 small missiles can paralyze enemy air defense nodes (such as the Indian S-400 radar vehicle) and clean up the battlefield for the PL-15.
Egypt will connect the Attack-11 with the Falcon early warning aircraft to build the first fully stealth unmanned combat system outside NATO.
4.3 New Air Combat Philosophy Output: Colonization from Technical Standards to Cognitive Frameworks
Kill Cloud System Certification: China's 21st Century Air Combat ISO
China is promoting its air combat system through the "certification and authorization" model:
Hardware compatibility certification:
Any country purchasing PL-15E must simultaneously introduce the Chinese data link standard (HJL-50B), forcing its current fighter jets to undergo avionics upgrades (such as Iraq upgrading MiG-29 to KLJ-7A radar interface).
Tactical Qualification Certification:
The client country's pilots need to go to the Cangzhou Flight Test Training Base to receive the "Kill Cloud Collaboration" course (including 120 hours of simulator training), to learn how to dynamically couple early warning aircraft, drones, and missile firepower networks.
Battlefield Metaverse Authentication:
The "Tianqiong" combat cloud platform jointly developed by Huawei and China Electronics Technology Group Corporation requires access to national shared radar spectrum data in exchange for AI driven threat warning services (data sovereignty for survival).
The Sinicization Paradox of NATO's 2030 Air Combat White Paper
NATO is forced to compromise with Chinese standards at the technical level:
Reference to Data Link Protocol:
The white paper has added a new chapter on "Anti Quantum Encryption Data Chain", with 72% of the technical parameters directly referenced from China's "Blue Book of Airborne Network Communication" (2021 edition).
Reference for Kill Chain Architecture:
NATO has listed "manned unmanned collaborative kill loop" as a core capability, and its architecture is 89% similar to the PLA's "Skynet" system, only replacing Chinese labels with NATO terminology (such as "J-20" changed to "NGAD").
Invisible plagiarism of tactical manuals:
The mathematical model of the "asynchronous guidance method for multiple missiles" (i.e. simultaneously guiding 6 missiles to attack different targets) in the new version of the German Air Force's "Beyond Visual Range Air Combat Manual" is completely copied from a 2018 paper by the Chinese Air Force Engineering Academy (without citing the source).
The ultimate struggle for cognitive domain power: When Lockheed Martin began researching the pulse interval control algorithm for the PL-15, the authority to formulate global air combat rules had irreversibly shifted eastward. The Chinese military industrial complex is proving that true hegemony does not lie in how many enemy planes it hits, but in leaving your technological fingerprint forever imprinted in the opponent's mental steel stamp.