Has the era of climate crisis arrived? Warning from meteorologists
We are not only in the year 2022, but also in the era of climate crisis for three years. This is a brand new era in human history and the history of the Earth“
The person who said this is Wei Ke, an associate researcher at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. In a public speech in June, the 42 year old meteorologist gave the audience a condescending expression and slowly said, "Why is it the third year? You'll know it when you hear it."
Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? At least for many places, the past June to July has already passed. In June, the global land area experienced the highest temperature since systematic human meteorological records began in the late 1850s. Record high temperatures, droughts, wildfires, rainstorm and floods swept the northern hemisphere, especially in the European continent, the United Kingdom and the United States. In certain regions.
In this scorching summer, more and more records are constantly being set. However, it must be pointed out that the increasingly frequent and severe climate crisis is not unique to any country or region this year, but rather a global and persistent phenomenon.
What's wrong with our world? According to a report released by the United Nations Disaster Reduction Agency in 2020, the frequency of various types of disasters in the first 20 years of the 21st century has significantly increased compared to the previous 20 years, with high temperatures increasing by 232%. Rainstorm increased by 134%, and the number of storms increased by 97%. China is the country reporting the most climate disasters.
Behind these disasters is a problem that we must face - global temperatures are continuously accelerating. For every ordinary person, climate change is no longer unattainable. Our generation is experiencing and will experience more climate crises.
If we use life as a metaphor for climate anomalies, the climate anomalies that occurred in nature in the past were equivalent to a person dying at the age of 100, while the climate changes we are experiencing now are equivalent to us dying within two weeks. People die at the age of 100, and we are not worried, but if they die within two weeks, the cause must be identified, and should we immediately take them to the hospital? This is the problem we are facing now.
By consulting the most comprehensive analysis database of over 500 extreme weather events on climate professional websites and conducting interviews with authoritative scientists in related fields, The Paper hopes to sound the strongest alarm to readers: the huge carbon emissions generated by human activities may push the Earth's climate towards a catastrophic new extreme. Scientific research shows that without climate change, many of the worst extreme weather events are almost impossible.
These clearly indicate that we are already at high risk of climate change.
A man on the rooftop is watching an impending fire in Camario, California.
A man on the roof is watching a picture of an impending fire
The formation of climate crisis
The connection between Wake and meteorology began in 1998. At that time, just after the college entrance examination, he turned on the TV and saw the news of rescue and disaster relief in the south. That year, not only the Yangtze River, Qiantang River, and Minjiang River in the south, but also the Songhua River and Nenjiang River in the northeast suffered from floods throughout the entire basin. The rescue department eventually requisitioned a large barge loaded with coal on the Yangtze River and blocked the gap with a sunken ship.
On TV, the military and civilians stood side by side, relying on each other and blocking water with their bodies, which excited this boy born and raised in the north. He immediately became curious about meteorological and environmental issues and filled his ambition to major in meteorological dynamics. Weather connection.
The true realization of the importance of climate change was the heatwave event that occurred in Europe in 2003. According to statistics, at least 75000 people have died from the six week period of high temperatures. That year, Wake was pursuing a doctoral degree. At the Chinese Academy of Sciences, we began to systematically study and study climate change.
After graduation, Wei Ke joined the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. What truly touched him to do science popularization was a heavy rain a few years ago. That year, his first child was born only a month ago.
"It was pouring rain outside that day, and one of my cousins drove back. We were very worried that something might happen to him, but an accident happened later. Fortunately, his life was not in danger. However, the others were not that lucky that night," Wake recalled.
"Among the people who drowned, there were also fathers of children. At that time, I felt that as a father, I could feel the pain of those broken families. At that time, I wanted to say that if someone could remind them not to go out, or what measures should be taken under such heavy rain, (perhaps the outcome would be different.) Of course, I was not blaming them. Perhaps no one in our entire society really regarded such extreme weather events as a very important thing, but it still moved me," he said.
Weike is not tall, his tone of voice is always calm and composed, and he always wears a smile on his face, making people feel very willing to listen. But when it comes to this past, he is clearly a bit excited.
In fact, even on a global scale, there are not many scientists willing to persist in science popularization for a long time. Most scientists believe that popular science is not only laborious but also has no direct benefits for career development.
Weike continued, "I gradually realized that today's society is filled with gossip and entertainment that firmly occupy public attention. If scientists don't do things that truly affect the public interest, the public may never be exposed to (climate change). That was when I started doing science popularization, and along the way, I have also met many like-minded scientists.".
In earlier years, there was a long-standing debate around the world about whether climate change was truly happening. Although the debate on this issue is decreasing with the emergence of more and more scientific research, there are still some people who hold a skeptical attitude towards climate change.
From the perspective of atmospheric physics, Wake explained that the Earth's climate does indeed undergo changes. Generally speaking, the Earth receives shortwave radiation from the Sun and then releases longwave radiation. When these two energies reach equilibrium, the Earth's climate is in a stable state. As long as this balance is disrupted, the climate will develop in a certain direction. Exercise leads to abnormal climate.
There are many reasons that can cause climate anomalies, such as Earth plate movements, volcanic eruptions, etc., which can all bring about global climate anomalies. If we examine the history of the Earth, we will find that most of the time there was no ice on the Earth, and there have been several major ice ages, and we are now in the middle of one of them (the Quaternary Ice Age); At least for the next 50000 years, this state was originally stable, but the emergence of humans changed direction.
"If we look at the evolution of global carbon dioxide levels over the past 800000 years, we will find that it varies between two values, with a minimum of no less than 170 ppm (parts per million) and a maximum of no more than 300 ppm. However, in the past century, human activities have rapidly increased this value to over 420 ppm today. Natural processes have occurred more than a hundred times, or even a thousand times," said Weike.
In 2000, Nobel laureate in Chemistry Paul Krutzen proposed the geological concept of the Anthropocene, which distinguishes the Earth from the Jurassic and Cretaceous periods and highlights the impact of human activities on the Earth. Impact. Although the scientific community has not yet reached a consensus on the beginning of this period, as more and more scientists recognize this, Vick believes it will soon become a standard scientific concept.
There are two fundamental differences between climate change caused by human activities and natural climate change in Earth's history: one is the difference in time scale, and the other is the difference in genesis. This is the fundamental problem we are facing today.
On May 18, 2022, the World Meteorological Organization released the 2021 World Climate Report, announcing that the current world average temperature is 1.11 ℃ higher than before the Industrial Revolution, clearly indicating that we are in a gradual change. In a warm world.
In this warming world, greenhouse gases emitted by human activities into the atmosphere absorb more solar heat, providing more energy to the climate system and leading to various serious extreme climate disasters, with high temperature waves and wildfires being the most obvious manifestations. Hotter air can hold more water vapor - about 7% more for every 1 ° C rise - which means more intense rainstorm and greater flood. The ocean absorbs most of the Earth's heat, and the warm ocean promotes the formation of stronger hurricanes and typhoons. The melting of glaciers at both poles and the expansion of hot seawater have pushed up sea levels, causing storms to hit deeper inland areas.
As early as December 12, 2020, UN Secretary General Guterres called for countries to enter a "climate emergency". If this event is taken as a starting point, Wake believes that 2020 can be seen as the first year of the global climate crisis, then this year is the third year of the climate crisis.
When people talk about major crises, there is always an important point in time. In the past, people always believed that climate change was a long time ago. I believe that the call of the United Nations is to make all humanity find a sense of urgency and ceremony that the crisis has arrived.
Climate disasters sweeping across the world
"Friends who are concerned about climate and the environment may have noticed that in the past two years, there have been more and more disasters, not only of various types, but also of increasing severity. Many people are wondering, 'What's wrong with our world?' In every science popularization speech on climate change, Weike will start with these words.".
Last year, Weike wrote a science book that introduced children to the impact of climate change on biology. In the preparation process, he discovered more and more materials - climate change has almost affected all life on Earth.
"I originally planned to write a book, but ended up writing a set of four with a lot of information. My friend said stop writing, we can't afford it." Wei laughed.
Although the impact of each extreme weather event is mostly localized, there is no doubt that the impact of climate change is global. Scientists are increasingly concerned that climate change is making extreme weather crises more severe, and ultimately not ubiquitous.
Since 2022, climate disasters have swept across the world, and a series of extreme weather events have become global news headlines. Record breaking temperatures, droughts, and wildfires have hit North America, Europe, India, and Pakistan; Rainstorm and floods swept through Seoul, South Korea, Sydney, Australia, Bangladesh, South Africa and Brazil.
From a global perspective, the warming trend in Europe, especially in Western Europe, is particularly evident. In July 2019, the temperature in Paris, France reached 42.6 ℃, and in July of this year, London reached an unprecedented 40.2 ℃. At the same time, the range and magnitude of temperature spikes are also increasing. High temperatures are accompanied by rare large-scale droughts and wildfires in the history of many countries.
In North America, following the record breaking extreme heat in the western region last year, temperatures are making a comeback this year. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, July may be the hottest month on record in the United States.
Although drought and wildfires are common in the western United States, what is little-known is that the entire Midwest is currently experiencing a 23 year drought, the most severe in 1200 years on this land. Drought crisis.
The water level of Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the United States (located at the border of Nevada and Arizona, 48 kilometers southeast of Las Vegas, formed by the Hoover Dam blocking the flow of the Colorado River and with a storage capacity close to the Three Gorges), has dropped to only one-third of its normal speed, causing the normal operation of the Hoover Dam, the largest dam in the United States, to come to a halt at any time, affecting the water quality and power supply of 40 million people in seven states.
As for South America, on May 27th this year, the northeastern region of Brazil experienced 22 days of rainfall in the same period as previous years within 24 hours. A week of heavy rain caused floods and landslides, resulting in at least 133 deaths and tens of thousands of people being displaced.
Across the Pacific, Asia, with nearly two-thirds of its population, is facing as many climate crises as anywhere else.
When Typhoon Haiyan hit the Philippines in 2013, climate change accelerated the storm surge, causing seawater to flood inland and resulting in over 7000 deaths. At the beginning of this year, India and Pakistan experienced the hottest weather on record in 122 years.
China is one of the countries in the world that reports the most climate disasters. In May 2019, a severe drought occurred in the southwest region. In 2020, the famous Leshan Giant Buddha Scenic Area's toes were submerged by floods for the first time. In 2021, Zhengzhou, Henan Province will experience a once-in-a-millennium heavy rainfall event.
In Africa, the ancient homeland of humanity, South African President Ramaphosa called the April 2022 floods the "greatest tragedy we have ever seen", causing hundreds of deaths and leading South Africa to declare the country in a state of disaster. Previously, in 2018, Cape Town experienced a zero day water shortage due to three years of abnormal drought.
In Australia, the bushfires that occurred at the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 can be identified from space. The months long wildfires caused ecological damage, resulting in the death or displacement of nearly 3 billion animals.
These extreme weather events are not just numbers. Behind each statistical data lies a vivid story of communities, families, and individuals being severely affected by extreme weather events.
More importantly, these climate driven events do not occur alone, but are intertwined with other major challenges of our time - such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia Ukraine conflict, which have affected many of the world's poorest and most vulnerable people The deadliest blow.
Jiang Tong, the first author of the second working group of the fifth and sixth reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations, Professor and Dean of the School of Geographic Sciences at Nanjing University of Information Technology, and the head of disaster risk research, told Paper that the latest IPCC report is the most important. The important conclusion is: "Human activities have undoubtedly triggered a global climate crisis; the world is about to miss the window of opportunity to achieve temperature control goals of 1.5 or 2 degrees; the climate factors affecting all regions. The world is not divided by time and space. It is getting worse and worse."
Jiang Tong added, "Nearly half of the world's population is extremely vulnerable to the impact of climate change. Humans need to take rapid and effective action to ensure sustainable development. Once temperatures rise above 1.5 degrees Celsius, it may cause many irreversible impacts."
Vick uses a more vivid metaphor to describe the danger we are in: "We face the unknown, we stand on the mountaintop, we know there must be a cliff ahead, but we don't know where the cliff is. There is fog around, and scientists estimate that the cliff ahead is about 1.5 degrees, which is the concept of a critical point. If the temperature rises to a certain extent, we cannot return."
Climate change is the biggest driving force
If we analyze the climate crisis from a global perspective, we will find that the severity of the crisis and the speed of change have exceeded the imagination of many people.
The global meteorological website Carbon Brief has analyzed over 500 climate science studies, making it the most comprehensive to date. It has found that the enormous human carbon emissions are pushing the climate to a crucial new extreme. If it weren't for anthropogenic climate change, many of the most severe climate disasters would be almost impossible to occur.
Wu Yixiu, project director of the Shanghai Pudong Yike Recycling Technology Promotion Center and former climate communication project leader of a non-profit organization, pointed out that scientists around the world are currently working hard to address one of the most urgent issues. Question: How significant is the impact of climate change on specific extreme weather events. This type of research is also known as climate attribution research.
The way scientists answer this question is to use weather records and computer models to compare two "different worlds" - the real world we live in, and the world before the large-scale burning of fossil fuels and rising temperatures. World. Researchers calculate the specific impacts of climate change by assessing the frequency of specific extreme weather events occurring in two different worlds.
Jiang Tong, the first author of the second working group of the fifth and sixth reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations, Professor and Dean of the School of Geographic Sciences at Nanjing University of Information Technology, and the head of disaster risk research, told Paper that the latest IPCC report is the most important. The important conclusion is: "Human activities have undoubtedly triggered a global climate crisis; the world is about to miss the window of opportunity to achieve temperature control goals of 1.5 or 2 degrees; the climate factors affecting all regions. The world is not divided by time and space. It is getting worse and worse."
Jiang Tong added, "Nearly half of the world's population is extremely vulnerable to the impact of climate change. Humans need to take rapid and effective action to ensure sustainable development. Once temperatures rise above 1.5 degrees Celsius, it may cause many irreversible impacts."
Vick uses a more vivid metaphor to describe the danger we are in: "We face the unknown, we stand on the mountaintop, we know there must be a cliff ahead, but we don't know where the cliff is. There is fog around, and scientists estimate that the cliff ahead is about 1.5 degrees, which is the concept of a critical point. If the temperature rises to a certain extent, we cannot return."
Climate change is the biggest driving force
If we analyze the climate crisis from a global perspective, we will find that the severity of the crisis and the speed of change have exceeded the imagination of many people.
The global meteorological website Carbon Brief has analyzed over 500 climate science studies, making it the most comprehensive to date. It has found that the enormous human carbon emissions are pushing the climate to a crucial new extreme. If it weren't for anthropogenic climate change, many of the most severe climate disasters would be almost impossible to occur.
Wu Yixiu, project director of the Shanghai Pudong Yike Recycling Technology Promotion Center and former climate communication project leader of a non-profit organization, pointed out that scientists around the world are currently working hard to address one of the most urgent issues. Question: How significant is the impact of climate change on specific extreme weather events. This type of research is also known as climate attribution research.
The way scientists answer this question is to use weather records and computer models to compare two "different worlds" - the real world we live in, and the world before the large-scale burning of fossil fuels and rising temperatures. World. Researchers calculate the specific impacts of climate change by assessing the frequency of specific extreme weather events occurring in two different worlds.
Dr. Freddie Otto from Imperial College London told The Guardian, "We are in an era of (climate) destruction that has been ongoing for decades." This is clearly reflected in scientific research, but not in policy. "
The most worrying thing is that all of this happened when the average temperature on Earth is currently only about 1 ° C. Scientists say that the pressure boosting effect of climate change on extreme weather is occurring at an astonishing rate. Based on experience so far, global temperatures are expected to rise by at least 2.5 ° C, which will bring greater crises and damage than the Earth has already suffered.
The cost of climate crisis
This summer, Wei Ke took his 6-year-old daughter back to his relatives in Qingdao and consciously took her to the streets during the day.
"My daughter was very unhappy. After taking a few steps, she told me it was unbearable hot," said Wei Ke.
From June to July this year, many parts of China experienced sustained high temperatures and heatwaves. As of August 11th, the number of days Shanghai has experienced temperatures exceeding 40 ° C this summer has reached 6, making it the highest recorded year in history (official reports suggest that temperatures may still exceed 40 ° C in the coming days). Since meteorological records began in 1873, Shanghai has experienced 20 extremely hot weather events above 40 ° C, with 18 occurring after 2000 and 6 occurring in 2022.
With the increase of extreme weather events, more and more people are becoming aware of the consequences of the climate crisis.
The consequences start with, but are not limited to, human health. The University of Bern in Switzerland's large-scale study of 732 locations in 43 countries provided preliminary conclusions: from 1991 to the summer of 2018, over the past 30 years, heat waves alone caused over 100000 deaths each year, resulting in millions of deaths, and mortality rates significantly increased across all continents.
Some places have been particularly severely hit. About three-quarters of high-temperature deaths in Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala, and Peru are caused by climate change. In Kuwait and Iran, about 66% of high-temperature deaths are also attributed to climate crises, while in Norway, this proportion is close to 50%. Due to aging population and rapid increase in heat wave frequency, the death toll in southern Europe is also on the rise. It is estimated that this year's heat wave in southern Europe has caused at least 5000 deaths, more than the number of civilian deaths in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Especially another study revealed the serious consequences of climate change on children. Research has found that climate change has caused 7000 to 11000 deaths per year among children under the age of 5 over the past 10 years. Researchers say that in sub Saharan Africa, the mortality rate of children associated with high temperatures is twice that of those without climate change.
Regarding this, Wu Yixiu stated that in daily life, the public may have two major blind spots regarding high temperatures: firstly, their understanding of fever is not particularly sufficient; The second is to pay attention not only to temperature, but also to humidity.
"The IPCC report mentions a wet bulb temperature (referring to the temperature reached when a piece of air is humidified to saturation, i.e. relative humidity reaches 100%). For example, we can also tolerate outdoor temperatures of 36 to 37 ° C. Yes, but if the wet bulb temperature reaches 35 ° C, people can only survive in outdoor environments for a few hours because when the humidity is very high, the human body can no longer cool down. By evaporating sweat, the human body will immediately produce a stronger reaction and endanger life." Wu Yixiu said.
Climate change has also caused huge economic losses, with Hurricane Harvey hitting Texas and Louisiana in 2017, causing $67 billion in losses. Extreme weather can also damage houses, businesses, roads, bridges, etc. Researchers are already calculating the losses.
The food supply that humans rely on for survival is also disrupted by climate change. Between 1991 and 2017, the United States lost $27 billion in crops due to climate change. Climate change also played a significant role in the drought in Ethiopia in 2015, which was the most severe in decades and affected nearly 10 million people. In Lesotho, climate change was a key driver of the food crisis that swept through the country in 2007.
The high temperature also triggered wildfires, and scientists estimate that due to climate change, the likelihood of wildfires has increased by 80%, releasing a record 59 million tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.
Although the impact of the aforementioned research and data is already astonishing. But so far, attribution studies have only evaluated a small portion of global extreme weather events, especially in countries and regions in the southern hemisphere, and not many. Although these regions bear the least responsibility for the climate crisis, they are the most vulnerable.
The increasing frequency and intensity of climate crises can also trigger various forms of emotional distress, affecting people's mental health - causing so-called "ecological anxiety". American psychology defines it as a long-term focus on observing the consequences of climate change. In other words, people are concerned about what the constantly changing Earth means for them and future generations.
According to a survey by the American Psychological Association, 68% of adults reported "at least some ecological anxiety," and 48% of young people reported that climate change has had a negative impact on their daily lives.
Wake's speech on climate change science ~ The future has arrived
In 2020, it was referred to as the "first year of the climate crisis" by Weike. The international community has put forward the goal of carbon neutrality, hoping to reduce global carbon emissions to a level that can be absorbed by nature and various methods by the middle of this century. However, this is a very challenging task.
Currently, the world's carbon emissions are still increasing. "It's like the speed limit on the highway is 120 kilometers per hour. You've already exceeded 130 kilometers per hour, but you're still accelerating. You don't know the maximum speed, but now your growth is faster than before. That's where we are today," Wick said similarly.
Will the impact of climate change continue to be faster than we imagine? Wake's answer is affirmative.
However, what worries him is that most people's understanding of climate change is still stuck in the state of boiled frogs.
"Many people believe that carbon reduction is a concern for organizations and figures such as the United Nations, governments, leaders of international organizations, and CEOs of multinational corporations. However, in reality, carbon reduction is closely related to each and every one of us. If we don't take action, there will be no hope for carbon reduction in the world," emphasized Weike.
At the end of each speech, Wake would earnestly ask the audience to introduce the following specific measures: such as turning off lights, turning off appliances, etc., or changing the bathtub at home to a shower, changing hair dryers to dry hair, drying clothes instead of drying, or we can choose more reasonable communication methods, exercise more, ride more bicycles, shop wisely, avoid impulsive purchases, avoid consumption traps, or we can recycle various resources, donate things we don't use, sort our garbage, and refuse (disposable) garbage bags. “
Weike admitted that everyone can do some simple things, and these can have different effects. Perhaps the world will eventually realize that taking action now is much cheaper than not taking action.
At the end of the speech, Wei Ke slowly asked, "I have already conveyed the message of the climate crisis to everyone. Are you thinking and preparing?"