The era of climate crisis is approaching, what should we do?
The 'crisis era' of climate change
This is the worst summer ever, but it could be one of the best summers in the next 30 years.
This is a statement recently released by Matthew Eby, founder of Firststreet Fund, regarding climate change in the United States. Meanwhile, extreme heat and drought are ravaging dozens of states in the United States.
The United States has just experienced the hottest summer on record in 2021. But this does not prevent the highest temperatures in many states from continuing to break history. In just the past 30 days, 43 regions in the United States have experienced the hottest July on record.
Under high temperatures, there is widespread drought.
According to statistics, 43% of the United States has entered into varying degrees of drought. Parts of this Sunshine Belt state, including California and Texas, are facing possibly the worst drought in a thousand years.
But all of this may not be just a "random" climate issue, but a product of global climate change.
According to the First Street Foundation, extreme heat will continue this trend. In the coming year, the highest temperatures in many regions will enter a "new historical stage" of 125 degrees Fahrenheit (51.67 degrees Celsius)
If this trend continues, in 30 years, the central United States will further form a temperate zone with the highest temperature of "50 degrees Celsius". Temperatures exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.78 degrees Celsius) in many regions will last for more than 20 days, and over 63% of US residents will be affected by the high temperatures.
Compared to temperatures in the 50s, this year may indeed be one of the best summers in the next 30 years.
In fact, the United States is just a glimpse of this global extreme climate. What we are currently experiencing is high temperatures and drought in the northern hemisphere. In Eurasia, many regions are facing more extreme problems.
In Europe, perhaps the worst drought since the Renaissance is unfolding.
Drought has almost affected the entire Central and Western Europe, affecting almost all of the land in some countries. For example, in Portugal and Romania, over 99% and 75% of countries respectively are experiencing severe or extremely severe drought. Two thirds of France has declared a state of emergency due to drought.
The life of urban residents is not easy.
On the one hand, many cities in major countries such as Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands are forced to pass water restrictions in order to ensure residents' daily water use. In some cities, even watering gardens is prohibited by local authorities, otherwise fines of up to 1500 euros may be imposed.
On the other hand, the rapid decline in river water levels in Europe has had a significant impact on inland shipping efficiency. Many cargo ships on the main shipping routes have been forced to clear 75% of their capacity, which has had an impact on the global supply chain.
Due to the rarity of severe disasters reported by European countries, almost at the same time as the establishment of the European meteorological system, news headlines have become a "show" of the ancient history of each country's meteorological system.
Belgium says this is the worst drought since 1885, while Italy claims it is the worst climate disaster since 1800.
Setting aside weather records, EU climate experts directly estimate that this is the worst drought in Europe in 500 years. This means that similar levels of extreme weather can be traced back to at least the late Renaissance period.
At that time, a monument called "Hunger Stone" was placed at the bottom of the Elbe River in Czech Republic, hoping to warn future generations of famine after drought. The slogan was "If you see this stone, you will cry".
Now, drought has returned the stones to the hands of Europeans.
It may not be clear who is more severe than the severe drought in 16th century Europe today. On the other side of the continent, in East Asia, the situation is also starting to get worse.
Taking China as an example, we are currently experiencing the strongest regional heatwave event since complete meteorological observation records began in 1961.
According to statistics from the National Climate Center, as of August 17th, 37.7% of national meteorological stations in China have reached the highest daily temperature for extreme hot weather. Among them, the highest temperatures in Hubei, Chongqing, Hebei and other places have exceeded 44 degrees Celsius.
Similarly, the southern region represented by the Yangtze River Basin is also experiencing a rare summer drought.
Originally, August was supposed to be the wet season in southern China, but lakes such as Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake entered the dry season 100 days earlier, which is the earliest recorded time. This means that the lake water level has dropped to the level of autumn and winter seasons ahead of schedule, and meteorologists are not particularly optimistic about autumn rain.
The river surface in Chongqing has also partially bottomed out, and the Bodhisattva "sleeping at the bottom of the river" has surfaced, becoming a hot search on the entire internet along with the dried up Poyang Lake.
In Europe and China, July is considered the "main flood season" of previous years.
According to surging news reports, Wei Ke, an associate researcher of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, called such global climate change "a phenomenon" in a speech in June this year.
The era of climate crisis
According to the 2020 report of the United National Defense Disaster Reduction Agency, compared with the previous 20 years, the frequency of disasters increased significantly in the first 20 years of the 21st century, with high temperature events increasing by 232%, rainstorm by 134%, and storms by 97%.
This is probably closely related to global climate change.
"Of the 500 extreme weather events and trends in the database, 71% are considered to be more likely or more serious due to climate change, including 93% of heat waves, 68% of droughts and 56% of floods and rainstorm events." According to the Koran.
The prediction of future extreme climate on Earth confirms this.
In May of this year, the United Nations released the "2022 Drought Data Report". Researchers have found that the frequency and duration of droughts have increased by over one-third in the past 30 years.
The report predicts that without further human intervention, by the middle of this century, 75% of the population will be affected by drought - meaning that approximately 4.8 to 5.7 billion people will live in drought affected areas for at least one month each year.
People unanimously agree that climate challenges are becoming more severe. On December 12, 2020, UN Secretary General Guterres publicly called on countries to declare a "climate emergency" for the first time to address the worsening global climate situation.
Hot dominoes
High temperatures and droughts pose systemic challenges to humanity.
Especially this summer, the heatwave in the northern hemisphere has almost covered the main population and economic regions of the region. Whether it is the major developed countries in Europe, the Sunshine Belt region in the United States, or the Yangtze River Basin in China, they are all severely affected by global high temperatures and droughts.
These regions have high economic and population densities, and are also important destinations for global population inflows. It is not an exaggeration to say that they are the most important and fastest-growing regions on Earth today.
Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that this high temperature will inevitably pose great challenges to the operational systems within the economic belts of various countries. High temperatures can trigger a chain reaction like dominoes.
In addition to stagnant river traffic, we have also identified at least five derivative risks:
Structural energy issues
The high temperature has promoted a rapid increase in the local power grid load, but it has also impacted the global power output capacity represented by clean energy.
Firstly, there are hydropower stations in various countries. Taking the recently controversial Sichuan hydropower station as an example, due to the reduction of water resources, the output of some of these hydropower stations is only half of what it used to be. Not only in Sichuan, but also in Europe, such as Italy and Spain, hydroelectric power plants have lost 40% to 44% of their electricity generation in the past 12 months
Then there is solar energy. The optimal temperature for solar panels is around 25 degrees Celsius. Excessive temperature can reduce efficiency and even damage equipment. Some industries estimate that the power efficiency loss of solar panels at high temperatures will be between 10-25%.
In addition, drought can reduce the efficiency of some energy production.
Taking France as an example, due to drought and water shortage, nuclear power plants are unable to provide sufficient coolant. Therefore, many nuclear power plants have been forced to shut down.
In response to similar energy issues, there has recently been a wave of fossil fuel power plant construction returning to Europe, including globally. People are more concerned that the latter will exacerbate global climate anomalies.
Food problem
Taking the EU, a major grain producing region, as an example, the agency predicts that the annual corn production will hit a 15 year low, a year-on-year decrease of more than 20%, and a 15% decrease from the drought forecast a month ago. In addition, grain prices have dropped by over 8%.
This is a dynamic number that will continue to fluctuate with changes in drought conditions.
flood
Although droughts are on the rise, American meteorologists have issued clear warnings that catastrophic floods may occur in places like California in the future.
On the one hand, drought can significantly reduce soil water absorption. The loss of organic matter forms a "waterproof layer" on the outside of the soil. If there is heavy rain at this time, the elasticity of the land to cope with rainwater will be greatly reduced.
On the other hand, global warming will increase the moisture content of the atmosphere, making it 'thirsty'.
Although this' thirst 'increases drought, in some cases it can lead to' river level 'heavy rainfall.
Climate scientist Daniel Swain simulated a similar scenario in his paper. He found that in the 2081-2100 climate model, some areas of California may have more than 100 inches (2540 mm) of rainfall, which is 10 times the daily rainfall of the current extremely heavy rainstorm.
Variation of pathogens
According to the latest research report by Nature Climate Change, only 16% of the 375 pathogenic diseases affecting humans have decreased due to climate change, while 218 (58%) have worsened due to climate impact.
In addition, the thawing of glacial permafrost objectively increases the possibility of ancient pathogen release. Of course, some experts believe that the likelihood of ancient pathogens causing major health events is not high.
sea level rise
According to the "Blue Book" data released by the China Meteorological Administration, the global sea level has shown a continuous and steady upward trend. In the past 40 years, the average annual rate of sea level rise in China has been 3.4 millimeters per year. Many organizations, including the United Nations, believe that the current global trend of rising sea levels is accelerating.
Sea level rise will not only inundate some low-lying areas, but also reduce the ability of global coastal areas to cope with storms and floods, and have a significant impact on nearshore fisheries.
Of course, in addition to the above five parts, there are many extreme events that are related to them, such as abnormal Earth humidity, increased susceptibility to forest fires, accelerated global species extinction, and abnormal atmospheric circulation caused by polar temperature changes, but we cannot list them all.
But what can be certain is that behind the climate is a complex system of integration between humans and nature, and its chain effect is often a "ripple effect that affects the whole body".
However, it is worth noting that China may be one of the countries most affected by global climate change.
From a geographical perspective, monsoon climate is not a "good tempered" climate type. In addition, the average altitude of the economic belts in China's major first tier coastal cities is also relatively low, mostly below 50 meters.
In terms of economic structure, China has formed an urban belt with a population of millions. The population and economic density of the world's largest city clearly pose higher and more complex requirements for social security capabilities in various aspects such as electricity supply, medical security, infectious disease prevention, and food supply.
Of course, China also has the world's largest group of blue collar industrial workers. The latter is often more susceptible to the effects of heat than others.
In a global report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) earlier this year, they concluded that under current conditions, the annual heat death rate in Chinese cities would increase from the current 32 people per million to 49.67 people (1.5 ℃)/59.81 people (2 ℃).
The IPCC believes that China is one of the top 10 countries in the world in terms of the impact and losses caused by tropical cyclones and storm surges. By the middle of this century, 93 million people in China may be threatened by coastal floods every year. The economic losses caused by rising sea levels and floods will be the highest in the world.
What should we do?
In climate reports, a large number of domestic and foreign media and scholars have actually expressed similar views - "extreme climate" is no longer just a rare climate event, but may become a norm for the future Earth.
So how can we respond to this enormous challenge of human society?
Climate change is also a development issue.
The issue of development can actually be divided into two parts:
Firstly, we need to readjust our organizational capacity to address climate change and conduct stress tests on all aspects of our social system. Many studies have shown that the most vulnerable groups under extreme weather conditions are often low-income groups or regions.
Taking Iraq as an example, due to its geographical environment, Baghdad experiences temperatures of over 50 degrees Celsius almost every summer. A considerable number of refugee camps and ordinary households lack effective cooling measures, which directly leads to an increase in climate refugees.
Even in the United States, last summer's heatwaves in Oregon and Washington caused 600 deaths within a week. Many of them are homeless.
Similarly, according to data from McKinsey's 2020 interview with Caixin, the current air conditioning penetration rate in China is only around 60%.
Air conditioning is only a small aspect. Whether it is sea level rise, higher drought incidence, more concentrated rainstorm, it puts forward more requirements for infrastructure and regional economic planning in all aspects of society.
Meanwhile, this means that the government needs to invest more funds in these infrastructure and livelihood improvements.
Secondly, there is the challenge of energy structure.
In recent years, the world hopes to replace fossil fuels with more clean energy to achieve sustainable development of human civilization. But whether it's wind energy, solar energy, or hydropower, they are all closely related to the climate. On the power grid side, the demand at the societal level cannot withstand the fluctuations in power generation caused by climate change.
In the short term, including the Nordic region and the Pearl River Delta region of China, there are already ways to increase fossil fuel power generation such as coal-fired power to calm some fluctuations in clean energy and make up for potential energy gaps in the near future. But obviously, this is not a long-term solution.
In contrast, energy storage is the best choice to address challenges. However, to achieve a true renewable energy cycle, astronomical investments are necessary.
For example, Musk has made similar estimates multiple times, stating that humans need at least 300 terawatt hours of battery energy storage to transition to sustainable energy. But based on the current cost of electric vehicle batteries at $100/kWh, this would require at least $30 trillion in investment. Obviously, he is beyond the reach of any entity. This does not include the risk of a surge in raw materials for large-scale projects.
Therefore, the issue of sustainable human development clearly requires further development of comprehensive technology and industrial costs to solve.
(2) Every kilowatt hour of electricity you save is high carbon energy
Development issues are important, but protection issues are also important.
If there is only one reason why our power grid has not yet reached zero carbon emissions, it is the rapid growth of demand in various regions.
Taking China as an example, it is currently one of the regions with the largest growth in new energy generation in the world. In the first half of the year, China's clean energy power generation reached 1.25 trillion kilowatt hours, close to last year's power generation and equivalent to China's power generation level in 2005.
At a time when we are fully accelerating the transition to new energy and the scale of new energy stock is already large, the reason why we still use fossil fuels can be attributed to one point - the stock of new energy is still far from enough.
Energy conservation is not only a tradition in China, but also an important component of Europe's energy transformation strategy.
After the Ukraine incident, Germany's radical new energy transformation plan clearly proposed strict limits on the total amount of electricity consumption to effectively achieve the overall decarbonization goal of the power grid.
From this perspective, every time an ordinary person saves unnecessary electricity bills, it actually helps us improve the cleanliness of the power grid one day in advance.
(3) Reflection on consumption: Your biggest carbon emissions may not necessarily be electricity bills and gas meters
According to CEADs (China Carbon Accounting Database) data from 2018, electric heating was the largest source of carbon emissions in China in the past, accounting for 46.6%; Industry (such as cast iron, etc.) ranks second with 37.3%; However, transportation only ranks third, accounting for 7.68%.
Although electric heating accounts for a large proportion, in fact, a considerable part of electric heating still serves the industry. In China's electricity consumption structure at that time, the ratio of industrial and commercial electricity consumption to residential electricity consumption was roughly 4.7:1:0.9.
Even if calculated at a 1:1 ratio between exports and domestic sales, this means that most of the consumption actually comes from our daily consumption, rather than direct energy use (including travel).
Taking the carbon emissions of the entire industry chain of electronic products that we often use as an example, according to data released by the Institute of Environmental Planning of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, consumption itself can bring astonishing carbon emissions. In 2022:
The average carbon emissions of a mobile phone are about 49 kilograms of carbon dioxide, and the carbon emissions of some Android flagship models can reach over 80 kilograms.
The average carbon emissions of laptops can reach up to 448 kilograms, and high-end series can reach 799 kilograms. In addition, the average carbon emissions of desktop computers can reach 830.7 kilograms, and high-end models can reach 1100 kilograms;
·The carbon emissions of household appliances such as dishwashers, drum washing machines, refrigerators, soybean milk machines, etc. range from 100 kg to 400 kg;
The average carbon emissions of a car (excluding actual driving) can reach as high as 8.74 tons, with large SUVs emitting up to 16.52 tons.
·In terms of daily necessities, the emission of shoes and clothing is generally 4-16 kilograms per piece;
·The waste of some service agencies is also astonishing. Taking four-star hotels as an example, the average carbon emissions per night are as high as 25.29 kilograms;
In contrast, the carbon emissions of one liter of thermal power and one liter of gasoline (including combustion) are about 0.93 kilograms and 2.85 kilograms, while the average carbon emissions of wind and hydropower stations can range from 4-20g, and photovoltaics are between 18-90 grams. between. If calculated solely on a proportional basis, the current average carbon emissions from electricity bills may be around 0.7 kilograms.
According to the average annual electricity consumption of 800 kWh per person in our country, its annual emissions are roughly equivalent to one high-end laptop.
The amount of carbon dioxide exhaled by a person in a day is actually about 0.9 kilograms.
Therefore, excessive consumerism is actually the real culprit driving global carbon dioxide emissions beyond the standard. In addition to emptying their wallets, blind buyers may also overdraw the future development space of humanity.
We can consume rationally, choose second-hand brands with better carbon emission protection, choose the performance and technology of technology products reasonably, and try to avoid repeated or impulsive consumption.
Only through everyone's efforts and every more environmentally friendly choice can we have another beautiful summer in the future.