We need Avatar 2 more than in 2009
After the release of Avatar 2, the search volume of Avatar surged on various platforms. On the Lighthouse platform, platforms such as Maoyan and Weibo are all on the hot search list. As of 7pm on November 23rd, the number of people who want to watch "Avatar 2" on Cat's Eye is close to 640000, higher than the 400000 people who want to watch "The Wandering Earth 2". If there is a work that can save the market, it must be it! "Said practitioners.
Avatar 2 has really arrived
Is it settled yet
It's settled like this
On the early morning of November 23rd, Liu Zichang, a cinema worker from Beijing, saw the news of the launch of "Avatar: The Way of Water" (hereinafter referred to as "Avatar 2"). At first, he was not quite sure. It was not until he discovered that all official media had published this information that the stone in his heart fell to the ground. I'm really relieved
Zhang Xu, the manager of a cinema in Hunan, saw this news in an industry group half an hour before the official announcement of the film's release. The gossip has been circulating in the industry for at least a month, and I didn't take it seriously this time until I saw the official announcement. This time it's true
Unless unexpected, Avatar 2 will be released in China on December 16th, synchronized with North America. It has been twelve years since the release of the previous movie. If there is a work that can save the market, it must be it! "Said practitioners.
At this moment, it's not just the cinema managers who are filled with joy. Many fans have already expressed on their social media that they must go watch it when it is released.
Linglong is one of them. A few years ago during the summer vacation, she saw the re release of "Avatar" and the sequel began to sprout in Linglong's mind. For this, she followed several film and television bloggers, paying attention to the progress of filming, the production of feature films, and the ups and downs of scheduling.
Although the IMAX technology ecosystem is becoming increasingly powerful and audiences are gradually accustomed to immersive viewing experiences, Linglong may worry that the audio-visual effects of Avatar: The Way of Water may not bring more surprises to herself, and the plot may not continue to be of high standard. However, the expectations are still higher than many previous movies.
Avatar changed my perception of science fiction movies, "Linglong said. Linglong used to be uninterested in science fiction films and occasionally absent-minded when she went to the cinema. I can fall asleep several times watching Star Trek
In recent years, Linglong has heard too much praise about 'Avatar', but only when this visual myth that challenges sensory limits is truly presented to her, Linglong's shock is still indescribable. The visual effects from a few years ago still looked stunning at the time, only those who had truly experienced them could understand
As a fan, Bailu's heart finally settled down. She bluntly said, 'It's been over a decade.' She was angry for several days when she heard that the movie might not be released in mainland China due to inappropriate remarks from some staff members.
This time, the egret is not only curious about whether Cameron will have new breakthroughs, but also about the task of "repaying debts". Bailu still remembers going to UME Anzhen store with a friend to watch "Avatar" when it was released in 2010. Because not every cinema in Beijing had IMAX at that time, I heard that Wanda and UME had better equipment, "Bai Lu recalled.
As a result, the husband who was eagerly waiting to watch a movie with the egret fell out and the two parted ways unhappily. Later, it was heard that "Avatar 2" was starting filming. Bai Lu and her husband revisited "Avatar" at home and agreed to go to the movies together when "Avatar 2" was released.
In fact, the egret also had a bit of plagiarism when watching Avatar back then. However, that time, the egret vividly remembered the shock of the new thing. The vegetation, animals, and wisdom trees of extraterrestrial planets presented by 3D technology are designed exceptionally beautifully, which is very much in line with my imagination of 'extraterrestrial creatures'
In addition, it is the theme expressed in this movie, 'Pandora showcases the ideal nature where sunlight, water, exotic flowers and plants, and birds and animals coexist harmoniously.' For egrets, this is a profound and touching theme beyond science fiction.
In China, there are countless audiences like Linglong and Egret. The first short review about Avatar 2 on Douban appeared in 2010, when the first film was just released in mainland China. Over the past decade, more than 5400 short comments have flown by, full of roast, complaints and waiting.
What's even more interesting is that in the less than 2-minute trailer of Avatar 2, there are already over 10000 words of analysis, ranging from story background, director's aesthetic, personal brainstorming analysis to film technology. Some netizens have also made corrections in the comment section. From the trailer, it appears that the little girl has four fingers, refuting the blogger's speculation that she is the youngest daughter. It can be said that even the trailer was watched by netizens with magnifying glasses.
At the same time, after the news of Avatar 2 was confirmed, its search volume on various platforms surged. On the Lighthouse platform, platforms such as Maoyan and Weibo are all on the hot search list. As of 7pm on November 23rd, there were nearly 640000 people who wanted to watch "Avatar 2" and 400000 people who wanted to watch "The Wandering Earth 2" on Cat's Eye, with the latter being booked 12 days ago.
The capital market that moves with the wind.
The final strength of Avatar 2 lies in its boosting effect on the stock prices of film and television companies.
After the official announcement on November 23rd, the stock price of China Film Group, as a film introduction and distribution company, rose by about 8% at one point. As a cinema stock, Hengdian Film, Jinyi Film, Wanda Cinema, Happiness Blue Ocean, and Shanghai Film also saw varying degrees of increase.
The setting of Avatar 2 is like putting a stone in the Dead Lake.
From the box office performance in the past three months, the film market in September, October, and November 2022 (as of the 23rd) was 1.269 billion yuan, 2.141 billion yuan, and 481 million yuan respectively, a decrease of 37%, 72%, and 64% compared to the same period last year, which can be described as dismal.
In terms of the number of moviegoers, this year is not as good as previous years. The cumulative number of moviegoers from September to November last year reached 273 million, and since September 2022, it has decreased to less than 100 million.
Weak supply and demand have led to a sharp decline in the number of moviegoers. Since the National Day holiday, the film market has not had any blockbuster movies for a long time, and the film market can only rely on blockbuster movies to boost it.
Avatar 2 injected a shot of adrenaline into the film market, but considering the actual situation, it's probably just that. More emotional, "industry insider Xiao Xu said helplessly," the real performance boost that can bring to cinema stocks may not last long
Although the audience showed extraordinary enthusiasm for Avatar 2, as a practitioner, Zhang Xu is far from optimistic. The market is too calm now, and it's difficult for one movie to drive the entire market. Avatar 2 can save the market, but it can also save for a period of time, maybe only until the Spring Festival
Zhang Xu is optimistic about everyone's indifference. He remembers that the highest number of moviegoers in his cinema this year was when "Ten Thousand Miles Back" was released, but compared to last year's National Day, the number of moviegoers was still half less.
This sentiment quickly spread to the capital market, but within a day, the stock prices of companies such as China Film, Hengdian Film and Television, Happy Blue Ocean, and Jinyi Film and Television, which rose on the 23rd, generally fell on the 24th.
In the long run, Avatar 2 can basically be released because it was introduced and released by China Film Group. But perhaps the box office is not as optimistic as the estimated 4 billion yuan in the market, "said Xiang Kai, a young Chinese playwright and director. "
The box office of 4 billion yuan is estimated based on the current box office performance of Avatar 1. Avatar 1 has grossed a total of 2.923 billion US dollars worldwide, ranking first in global film history and second in China. Two screenings in mainland China have accumulated 1.715 billion yuan, and the two screenings have attracted 37.68 million viewers. Considering the continued influence of IP and the increase in movie screens and ticket prices,
A box office of 4 billion is not surprising.
But there was no epidemic at that time, and cinemas were operating normally. According to Lighthouse Professional Edition data, as of November 22, there were 6704 cinemas in operation nationwide, a decrease of 328 from the previous day. The operating rate of cinemas nationwide is only 54%, which means about half of the cinemas in the country are closed.
The reason why cinemas are not open is simple, because the cost of opening them is higher than not opening them. The main sources of revenue for cinemas include box office revenue and non ticket revenue such as popcorn, beverages, and advertising, and the real money is made from non ticket business. However, the lack of film release regulations, the prohibition of selling beverages and popcorn, as well as the costs of rent, utilities, labor, disinfection, and other expenses brought about by the opening of cinemas, have left cinemas at a loss.
In addition, ordinary people may also reduce their spending appropriately due to their expectations for the future, and expenses related to movies may be cut off. "The situation is not optimistic, so Xiang Kai conservatively estimates that the final box office may only be 2 billion, or at best between 2 billion and 3 billion.
This influence may continue into upcoming movies and even the Spring Festival season. It is known that there are upcoming movies such as "Can't You Leave Me", "Keep You Safe", "Lost Husband", "Fast Bodyguard", etc. During the Spring Festival, there will be "Wandering Earth 2", "Boonie Bears", and "Bear Heart and Me".
According to everyone's current mood, perhaps only comedy movies can earn box office revenue. From a regional perspective, low-risk areas benefit more, "Xiang Kai analyzed. This means that major ticket cities in China such as Beijing and Guangdong find it difficult to "stand firm", and the future of the film market remains shrouded in mystery.
Avatar, which was needed over 12 years ago
Twelve years have passed, and many overseas film markets have undergone earth shaking changes, but Avatar 2 is still worth looking forward to. That's also why the arrival of Avatar 2 has once again brought the long dormant domestic film market to a boil.
Few movies have changed the film industry, cinema market, and audience's imagination of big screen movies on their own like Avatar.
In 2009, Avatar was born as the first digital 3D film in history, officially ushering in the era of 3D cinema. Although James Cameron, the film director, had already completed the screenplay in 1994, it took over a decade to find a customized filming equipment in the market that could meet the visual requirements.
In January 2010, "Avatar" landed in mainland Chinese cinemas, and a feast recorded in the history of Chinese cinema was immediately staged. In big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, almost every cinema has assigned the highest priority to Avatar, with a maximum of 20 screenings per day. However, Chinese audiences still find it difficult to obtain a vote.
At that time, IMAX cinemas were in short supply. There are only three IMAX cinemas in Beijing, and the China Film Museum is located near the Capital International Airport. It is rarely visited on weekdays due to inconvenient transportation and high ticket prices. However, when 1500 IMAX movie tickets for Avatar were sold out every day, the tickets sold out within half an hour.
That winter in Shanghai, movie fans rode ponies and lined up four to five hundred meters outside the IMAX cinema just to buy a movie ticket for two or even three days later. With such enthusiastic support, some scalpers once shouted out ticket prices higher than 600 yuan.
In the end, Avatar premiered in China and grossed over 1.3 billion yuan, becoming the first Chinese film to earn over 1 billion yuan at the box office. You should know that in 2010, the total box office in China was only 10.17 billion yuan, with "Avatar" accounting for over 13%.
But the impact of Avatar did not stop with the end of the schedule. Like the first dark draw, the success of Hollywood blockbusters marked the beginning of the upgrade of cinema equipment in China.
Before the release of the movie in 2009, the total number of Chinese screens was less than 5000. At that time, there were only 22 IMAX screens and over 20 million projection equipment. Today, there are over 70000 screens and more than 800 IMAX screens.
The popularity of movies continued until after the Spring Festival, and at the same time, the Spring Festival slot for domestic movies was opened, allowing the industry to see the potential of the Spring Festival slot for the first time. Afterwards, the Chinese film market ushered in the best situation. The maturity of the film industry has promoted the frequent emergence of high-quality works, and the vast majority of consumers have begun to enter cinemas. Real money, the annual box office in China has grown more than six times in less than a decade.
It was also during these years that Cameron became obsessed with exploring the ocean while preparing for Avatar 2.
In the script of this movie, Carson spent four years revising and polishing it, and then spent another five years bringing a brand new worldview, designing different creatures, cultures, and costumes of Pandora. With the anticipation of fans around the world, Avatar 2 returns. But this time, it will face a completely different film market.
The impact of the epidemic on movies is profound. Both domestically and globally, Honor stalled in 2019 and has yet to recover. The global film market is still struggling to recover, and this process is slower than expected.
Taking the American film market as an example. A few months ago, people were generally optimistic that as the pandemic receded and fans returned to cinemas, the US box office would soon recover to pre pandemic levels.
But as this year draws to a close, Wall Street analysts and executives from film companies are readjusting their box office expectations and starting to seriously consider a question: can the box office of movies return to the level of 2019? The broader question is, will people still remember the cinema?
In October of this year, a report from Goldman Sachs showed that the US box office for the third quarter of this year was $1.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%, but still 32% lower than pre pandemic levels. The market's recovery is not as fast as expected. The box office in September was only 46% of the same period in 2019, the lowest level in the United States since 1996.
Analyzing the reasons, the production of film and television content has been impacted during the epidemic, and the insufficient output of works has affected box office performance. In addition, streaming video platforms represented by Netflix and Hulu have emerged strongly, achieving significant growth in content production and user numbers.
The box office is expected to increase from 7.7 billion US dollars to 7.9 billion US dollars in 2022, while the box office is expected to decrease from 7.8 billion US dollars to 7.6 billion US dollars in 2023. By comparison, the domestic box office in 2019 was 11.4 billion US dollars.
This phenomenon is also a microcosm of the North American and European film markets. In the last quarter, the sluggish market urgently needs the release of blockbuster films such as Avatar 2 and Black Panther 2 to invite audiences back to the cinema. Nevertheless, analysts believe that the downward trend in box office revenue will continue until 2023.
Nowadays, the film drought continues. According to Maoyan data, the daily box office of Chinese movies in November hovered around 10 million yuan, and there is an urgent need for a box office blockbuster to alleviate the market's coldness.
13 years have passed, can Avatar 2 continue to write myths like before?
(All character names in the article are pseudonyms)