North America regains its position as the world's largest box office! Can North American blockbusters help revive the domestic film market in 2023?
With the release of the 2022 box office chart, the progress of the global film industry's recovery is presented to the audience.
According to a report by the British film industry data analysis agency Gaul Street, the global box office is expected to reach $25.9 billion in 2022, an increase of 27% compared to 2021. Among them, movies such as "Avatar: The Way of Water," "Top Gun 2: The Lone," and "Doctor Strange: The Madness of the Multiverse" topped the box office charts in markets such as North America and Western Europe.
However, most of the Hollywood movies mentioned above have performed poorly in the Chinese market. Due to various complex reasons, the number of imported films released domestically has significantly decreased, especially popular series. When it comes to the specific movies released, the reputation of Hollywood movies has been repeatedly questioned. Many imported movies have an inverted box office in China compared to the global market, and the world's hottest movies are often very cold in China. Hollywood companies that aim for global distribution of movies have become ambiguous about the Chinese market.
Imported movies represented by Hollywood have played a key role in the rapid growth of the Chinese film market. Before the outbreak of the epidemic, imported films accounted for 37.9% of China's total box office in 2019. In the context of insufficient domestic film production capacity, the contribution and significance of imported films to China's box office should be re emphasized.
Hollywood occupies the top eight of the annual global box office chart.
In 2022, Hollywood movies will return to their global box office dominance.
According to Boxofficemojo.com, the top eight global box office movies of 2022 are all from Hollywood, including movies such as Avatar 2, Top Gun 2, Jurassic World 3, Doctor Strange 2, and Thor 4. Classic IPs still have strong appeal. 2022 is a year of recovery for most of the global film markets.
The "Big Five" Hollywood studios (Disney, Universal, Warner Bros., Sony, Paramount) have also achieved success in theatrical films.
The annual box office champion belongs to Disney's Avatar: The Way of Water. The film had a poor opening weekend box office performance, but its momentum exceeded expectations. As of the time of writing, the global box office has exceeded 1.7 billion US dollars. According to The Hollywood Reporter, director James Cameron stated that "Avatar: The Road to Water" will easily cross the breakeven point and the Avatar series will have a sequel.
Marvel Comics still achieved impressive box office results: "Doctor Strange 2: The Madness of the Multiverse," "Black Panther 2: Long Live Kanda," and "Thor 4: Love and Thunder" ranked among the top ten global box office films in 2022, with a cumulative box office of over $2.5 billion.
Paramount, unknown for the past few years, has fought a comeback. Deadline reports that Paramount grossed $1.29 billion in North America in 2022, a 364% increase from 2021. Among them, the heroic spirit of the Lone Ranger is indispensable. The film grossed approximately 719 million US dollars in North America and 1.489 billion US dollars globally, ranking second in box office that year.
The highest grossing film of Warner Bros. this year is The New Batman, with a global box office of over $770 million. This marks another box office success independent of the DC universe, following Joker. However, the global box office of DC Universe's "Black Adam" is less than $400 million. According to variety show reports, the production cost of this movie is 195 million US dollars, and the promotional expenses are 80 million US dollars.
Warner Bros. 'Harry Potter is also in trouble. Fantastic Beasts: The Mystery of Dumbledore grossed only $405 million worldwide, far less than the previous two films. Hollywood reporters have stated that the cost of this movie has reached $200 million, which means that Fantastic Beasts 3 may have just returned to the original work, and whether there will be a fourth and fifth installment in the series is still uncertain.
Universal Pictures and Sony Pictures are relatively stable. The two classic IP sequels, Jurassic World 3 and Minion's Big Eyes: A Prequel to Despicable Me, from Universal Pictures, grossed $1 billion and $939 million respectively at the global box office. Although Sony Pictures did not produce another Spider Man: No Way Home, the company immediately released Uncharted, also starring "Dutch Brothers" Tom Holland, which grossed $402 million at the global box office and cost approximately $120 million.
Hollywood was hit by a rock, and the box office of the imported film 'China' failed?
Hollywood continues to make money globally, but there is an objective situation of being "cold" in China.
Firstly, the number of programs has decreased. Out of the top eight global box office movies, only four were imported from China, and only Jurassic World 3 and Avatar: The Way of Water were released simultaneously in North America. The release dates of the other six movies are later than those in North America.
From the perspective of the producers, "Jurassic World 3" and "Big Eyes, Little Yellow Man: Prequel to Despicable Me" are produced by Universal Pictures; The new Batman is from Warner Bros. Avatar: The Way of Water originates from Disney and is linked to Chinese cinema through CINITY technology.
Secondly, even if successfully introduced, Hollywood movies always face controversy when released in China. In terms of word-of-mouth, the prequel to "Minions Have Big Eyes: Despicable Me" has sparked discussions due to the ending of the Chinese special edition. The New Batman was criticized for its slow pace, while Jurassic World 3 and Avatar: The Way of Water were seen as lacking in plot.
At the same time, the phrase 'Hollywood movies cannot save the market' has been repeatedly mentioned. Only two Hollywood films, Jurassic World 3 and Avatar: The Way of Water, entered the top ten of China's annual box office chart, while other Hollywood films did not exceed 350 million yuan in China's box office.
The significance of Hollywood to the Chinese market has also become a focus of public attention. In May 2022, # Why Chinese audiences don't like watching Hollywood blockbusters # became a hot topic. In December, when it was predicted that the box office of "Avatar: The Way of Water" would shrink significantly, Yu Dong, the chairman of Bona Film Group, publicly stated that "the viewing habits of American films and Chinese audiences today have gradually drifted apart," sparking heated discussions.
It is worth noting that many Hollywood movies with average domestic box office performance have achieved good global box office results. For example, the domestic box office of "The New Batman" is 160 million yuan, but the global box office is 770 million US dollars; The Chinese box office of 'Moon Falling' is 158 million yuan, similar to 'The New Batman', but the global box office is only 67.29 million US dollars.
Selling poorly in China, selling well overseas; It sells well in China, but poorly overseas. This means that the box office performance of Hollywood movies in China is "inverted" compared to their global box office performance.
As of December 31, 2022, the global box office of the top eight Hollywood movies in China in 2022 compared to China, data compiled from boxofficemojo.com. It can be observed that, apart from "Jurassic World 3" and "Avatar 2", many Hollywood movies that have performed well at the global box office, namely in China, are not as satisfactory as expected.
The reasons for the above-mentioned "inverted" phenomenon are complex, but it cannot be denied that looking back at the whole year of 2022, Hollywood films still play a key "exploratory" role in the Chinese market: when domestic films cannot be released due to various complex reasons and the market drops to freezing point, imported films are often released first to fill the market gap during the recovery period.
Since March, the epidemic has been fluctuating, and the operating rate of cinemas has dropped below 50%. Movies such as "The New Batman," "Uncharted," and "League of Legends" have been postponed multiple times. When the cinema reopened in early June, the first movie to earn over 1 billion yuan at the box office was Jurassic World 3. After the National Day holiday, the market experienced another drought. Until mid December, "Avatar: The Way of Water" was released and once again grossed over 100 million yuan in a single day. As of the time of press, the box office of "Avatar: The Way of Water" in China has exceeded 1.3 billion yuan.
In addition, the box office share of Hollywood movies in the Chinese market is also showing a downward trend. Famous IP movies such as "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Fantastic Beasts: The Mystery of Dumbledore" account for less than 10% of the box office in China. By comparison, before the outbreak of the pandemic, "Avengers: Endgame" accounted for 22.6% of the box office in China.
But the Chinese market remains crucial for Hollywood. Taking Avatar: The Way of Water as an example. At present, the Chinese market still contributes 162 million yuan to the box office, second only to North America, making it the second largest market for film box office.
From the above comprehensive performance, it can be seen that at least in 2022, the Chinese film market still needs a period of recovery for Hollywood films, and Hollywood films also need the Chinese market to contribute to their box office revenue.
Hollywood film companies have also responded to changes in the Chinese market. The most outrageous statement was made by former Disney CEO Bob Cza Pek during the Q2 earnings conference call in May 2022. Regarding the obstruction of Disney movies' distribution in China, Chapek replied that although the situation is complex, he believes that Disney can survive well without entering the Chinese market. For example, the Marvel Comics film "Doctor Strange 2: Crazy Multiverse" was not introduced to China. The film's global box office closed at $956 million, ranking fourth on the 2022 global box office chart.
Global has made a similar judgment. According to Variety, Veronika Kwan Vandenberg, President of International Distribution at Universal Pictures, said that for Hollywood movies, "there are still many opportunities in China, but this is not a box office guarantee. (Domestic display) is more like icing on the cake.
What can Hollywood bring to the Chinese market in 2023?
In fact, in 2022, not only the box office of Hollywood movies, but also the overall performance of the Chinese film market will be inverted.
According to data from Gore Street, compared to 2021, the film market in most regions has achieved significant box office growth: the total box office in North America reached $7.5 billion, a 65% increase from 2021, returning to the position of the world's largest ticket warehouse; The total box office in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa reached 7.1 billion US dollars, an increase of 52% compared to 2021; The total box office of the Asia Pacific region (excluding China) reached 5.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 49% compared to 2021; The total box office in Latin America reached 1.8 billion US dollars, an increase of 87% compared to 2021.
Most global film markets are striving to emerge from the shadow of the pandemic, but the overall box office level still lags behind the average level of the three years before the pandemic (2017-2019): compared to before the pandemic, the total box office in various regions has generally decreased by about 30%.
Most film markets have achieved box office growth, but China is a different story. In the past year's "movie drought", China has become one of the few regions with negative box office revenue growth compared to 2021. According to data from the National Film Administration, the total box office of movies in China in 2022 was 30.067 billion yuan, while in 2021 it was 47.033 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36%.
The data is compiled from a report by the British film industry data analysis agency Gaul Street.
In 2023, Hollywood has a very active list of movies. Recently, the American ticketing platform Fandango conducted a survey on the "Most Anticipated Movies for Audiences in 2023", and the results showed that the top 10 movies that American audiences most want to watch in 2023 are all series movies.
Marvel Comics ranked among the top three movies. Directed by James Gunn and scheduled to be released in North America on May 5th, "Roll Guide," Guardians of the Galaxy 3 topped the list, followed closely by "Spider Man: Parallel Universe 2" and "Ant Man and Wasp: Quantum Madness. Fast Pursuit 4, Indiana Jones 5, Aquaman 2: Mission: Impossible 7, The Hunger Games: Song of the Birds and Snakes, Quidditch 3, and Super Mario Bros. movies are also on the list.
The survey also showed that 84% of respondents said they will watch at least six movies in cinemas in 2023, and 97% of respondents said they will go to cinemas more frequently than the previous year. This undoubtedly sends a positive signal to the North American Academy Line.
In addition to the audience voting results mentioned above, Hollywood has other new films that are highly anticipated. The live action version of Disney's "The Little Mermaid" has been scheduled for May 26th. Warner Bros. 'list also includes DC's "Shazam 2" and "The Flash". Universal Pictures' "Fast and Furious 10" was released in North America on May 19th, and Christopher Nolan's new film "Oppenheimer" will also be released in North America on July 21st. Legendary Pictures' Dune 2 is also scheduled to be released in North America in November.
Hollywood movies have been rising from the beginning to the end of the year, but the recovery of the global film market will not be achieved overnight. According to the released list of cinema films, Gore Street is expected to further increase its global box office to $29 billion in 2023, still about 27% lower than the average level of the three years before the pandemic.
Looking back at China, it is still unknown which Hollywood movies can be seen on the screen in 2023. In the past three years of the epidemic, imported films have become increasingly distant from domestic audiences. According to the "2022 China Film Market Data Insight" by Maoyan Research Institute, from 2020 to 2022, the number of newly released domestic films has recovered to 81% of pre pandemic levels, but the number of newly released imported films has only recovered to 52%.
According to data from Lighthouse Professional Edition, imported films accounted for 46.6%, 36.7%, and 37.9% of the annual box office from 2017 to 2019, respectively, and at least 30% of the total box office of the Chinese film market that year, making them an important component of the market. On the other hand, domestic films are also facing the serious problem of declining production capacity. The Cat's Eye Research Institute cited data from the National Film Administration, stating that as of August 2022, the number of feature films registered in 2022 has decreased by 30% compared to the same period from 2019 to 2021. Due to the time required for film production, the reduction in the number of records also means that domestic films still have a long way to go to fully recover to pre pandemic levels.
Seven new films have already been released during the 2023 Spring Festival season, and the cinemas will continue to release them for a long time. However, throughout the year, there were very few scheduled movies. At present, it seems difficult to maximize the audience's return based solely on the existing number of domestic films and the frequency of new releases. As mentioned above, although the performance was not as expected, Hollywood movies can still play a key role in the market recovery period and promote the recovery of the Chinese film market.
Not long ago, China Film Group stated at a performance briefing that in the past two years, the proportion of imported films in the domestic box office has gradually decreased. The number of imported films and box office trends have also attracted market attention. With the shortage of imported films, the film industry is starting to rethink its significance for the Chinese market. It is worth observing and looking forward to the extent to which Hollywood movies and imported movies can help the domestic market recover in 2023.
Note: When boxofficemojo.com conducts box office statistics, the box office of Hong Kong and Taiwan is included in the Asia Pacific market and not in the Chinese market.